🔗 Share this article

While dawn crept over the Amazonian city of Belém on Saturday morning, negotiators remained stuck in a airless conference room, uncertain whether it was day or night. Having spent 12 hours in tense discussions, with numerous ministers representing multiple blocs of countries including the poorest nations to the richest economies.

Frustration mounted, the air heavy as exhausted delegates confronted the sobering reality: they were unlikely to achieve a comprehensive agreement in Brazil. The international climate negotiations faced the brink of abject failure.

The central impasse: Fossil fuels

As science has told us for nearly a century, the CO2 emissions produced by utilizing fossil fuels is warming our planet to critical levels.

However, during nearly three decades of yearly climate meetings, the essential necessity to stop fossil fuel use has been referenced only once – in a decision made two years ago at the Dubai climate summit to "shift from fossil fuels". Delegates from the Middle Eastern nations, Russia, and multiple other countries were adamant this would not be repeated.

Growing momentum for change

At the same time, a increasing coalition of countries were similarly resolved that progress on this issue was crucially important. They had created a initiative that was gathering growing support and made it apparent they were willing to stand their ground.

Developing countries strongly sought to make progress on securing funding support to help them address the already disastrous impacts of extreme weather.

Turning point

By the early hours of Saturday, some delegates were prepared to walk out and force a collapse. "We were close for us," remarked one national delegate. "I was prepared to walk away."

The pivotal moment came through negotiations with Saudi Arabia. Around 6am, principal delegates split from the main group to hold a confidential discussion with the head Saudi negotiator. They encouraged text that would obliquely recognise the global commitment to "move beyond fossil fuels" made two years earlier in Dubai.

Unanticipated resolution

Rather than explicitly referencing fossil fuels, the text would refer to "the previous commitment". Following reflection, the Saudi delegation unforeseeably accepted the wording.

The room showed visible relief. Cheers erupted. The agreement was done.

With what became known as the "Brazil agreement", the world took another small step towards the gradual elimination of fossil fuels – a faltering, inadequate step that will barely interrupt the climate's ongoing trajectory towards disaster. But nevertheless a significant departure from complete stagnation.

Important aspects of the agreement

• Alongside the indirect reference in the official document, countries will commence creating a framework to systematically reduce fossil fuels
• This will be largely a optional undertaking led by Brazil that will report back next year
• Addressing the required reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to not exceed the 1.5C limit was also put off to next year
• Developing countries secured a tripling to $120bn of annual finance to help them manage the impacts of climate disasters
• This amount will not be fully available until 2035
• Workers will benefit from a "just transition mechanism" to help people working in fossil fuel sectors shift to the sustainable sector

Differing opinions

As the world hovers near the brink of climate "irreversible changes" that could eliminate habitats and plunge whole regions into chaos, the agreement was far from the "giant leap" needed.

"Negotiators delivered some baby steps in the proper course, but given the magnitude of the climate crisis, it has not met the occasion," warned one environmental analyst.

This limited deal might have been all that was possible, given the international tensions – including a American leader who shunned the talks and remains aligned with oil and coal, the growing influence of conservative movements, continuing wars in multiple regions, intolerable levels of inequality, and global economic volatility.

"Major polluters – the oil and gas companies – were finally in the focus at Cop30," notes one climate activist. "This represents progress on that. The platform is open. Now we must turn it into a real fire escape to a more secure planet."

Major disagreements revealed

Even as nations were able to applaud the gavelling through of the deal, Cop30 also revealed deep fissures in the only global process for confronting the climate crisis.

"UN negotiations are consensus-based, and in a time of geopolitical divides, agreement is ever harder to reach," observed one global leader. "We should not suggest that these talks has delivered everything that is needed. The difference between our current position and what evidence necessitates remains concerningly substantial."

If the world is to prevent the worst ravages of climate collapse, the global discussions alone will prove insufficient.